Mexico vs South Africa World Cup 2026 preview, team news and prediction

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The 2026 World Cup begins on Thursday night as co-hosts Mexico take on South Africa in Group A at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. It is the first of 104 matches in the new 48-team format, and it also carries a nod to 2010, when Rafael Márquez cancelled out Siphiwe Tshabalala’s famous opener in a 1-1 draw in Johannesburg.

The bookies have the the hosts as the clear favourites at 2/5 with Betfred while South Africa are 8/1 outsiders with Sky Bet and a draw is 3/1 with Paddy Power . Mexico have already made history before a ball is kicked, becoming the first nation to host the men’s World Cup three times. Alongside the United States and Canada in 2026, they add to their iconic tournaments in 1970 and 1986.

Head coach Javier Aguirre will lead El Tri at a World Cup for the third time across three separate spells in charge. Reappointed in 2024, the 67-year-old has taken over a side determined to put right their Qatar 2022 disappointment, when they failed to reach the knockout phase for the first time since 1978.

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As co-hosts, Mexico avoided CONCACAF qualifying and arrive ranked 14th in the FIFA world rankings. After winning both the Nations League and the Gold Cup - lifting the latter in July last year - their momentum dipped, ending 2025 without a win in their final six friendlies.

Their results have picked up this year, however, with draws against Portugal and Belgium followed by three straight wins over Ghana, Australia and Serbia, including a 5-1 demolition of Serbia in Toluca last Friday.

Mexico are also unbeaten in their last seven World Cup openers dating back to 1994, and they are expected to be backed by a sell-out crowd of around 83,000 on Thursday. Beating South Africa would put them in a strong position to challenge for top spot in Group A ahead of games against South Korea and the Czech Republic.

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South Africa arrive for their fourth World Cup, returning to the tournament for the first time since hosting it 16 years ago after failed qualification bids for 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Their route back came via a chaotic CAF qualifying finale with a 3-0 win over Rwanda in their last match, combined with Nigeria’s 4-0 victory over group leaders Benin, allowed Bafana Bafana to finish top with 18 points from 10 games - despite a three-point deduction for fielding an ineligible player in a home win over Lesotho.

Belgian coach Hugo Broos, in charge since 2021, brings a squad ranked 60th in the world and 11th in Africa, and South Africa are generally viewed as outsiders to progress from Group A.

Since reaching the AFCON last 16 earlier this year, they have gone four friendlies without a win, drawing and losing against Panama in March, then being held 0-0 by Nicaragua in late May. A behind-closed-doors match against Jamaica last Saturday was initially reported as a 1-0 win, but was later confirmed as a 1-1 draw.

Broos admitted the display was below expectations and said he would take a close look at “what was really wrong”. On Thursday, South Africa will be seeking their first win over Mexico since a 2-1 Gold Cup victory in July 2005.

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Guillermo Ochoa is chasing an unprecedented sixth World Cup appearance, but the 40-year-old is under real pressure from Raul Rangel to start in goal on Thursday.

Edson Alvarez is set to win his 99th cap alongside César Montes in defence, while Javier Aguirre must decide whether to start 17-year-old Gilberto Mora or opt for the experience of Orbelin Pineda or Luis Chávez. Raul Jiménez could draw level with Jared Borgetti on 46 goals if he scores, with Roberto Alvarado and prolific Julián Quinones expected to join him in attack.

For South Africa, Aubrey Modiba is back in contention at left-back, with Ime Okon and Mbekezeli Mbokazi options in central defence. Hugo Broos is likely to use a 4-3-3 formation built around a Mokoena–Mbatha–Sithole midfield, with Oswin Appollis supporting Burnley striker Lyle Foster.

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